BY JACK BARNES 
The world in which the 1992 election campaign has taken place is marked by increased instability and growing conflicts between the major capitalist powers and ruling classes.

The one modest claim Bush makes for his administration is that for the first time since World War II our children can now go to sleep at night with the knowledge that nuclear war is not going to occur. Whatever criticisms others may have of his administration, Bush says, they cannot deny him that. When he raised this claim during the televised presidential debates, neither Clinton nor Perot would touch it. But of course Bush's assertion is false.

The likelihood is growing, not diminishing, that nuclear weapons will be used in conflicts accelerating around the world. The ones proliferating the farthest and fastest are tactical nuclear weapons, those under the control of battlefield commanders. The use of such tactical nuclear weapons, moreover, is among the actions most likely to provoke broader nuclear exchanges.

A large number of countries now deploy missiles for various military or civilian purposes that could be fitted with nuclear warheads—more than thirty countries so far, by most estimates, with others on the way to developing such missiles. And the wherewithal to produce tactical nuclear weapons is growing as well.

So, it is a lie that children should be able to sleep easier at night. No nonproliferation agreements or anything else will stop the nuclear threat from growing. There is no economic, scientific, diplomatic, or military way under capitalism to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and delivery systems.

Of course, there is another way to read Bush's claim—that implicitly he is only talking about children in the United States. Perhaps he is saying that children in this country do not have to worry tonight that someone will launch an intercontinental ballistic missile at them. Never forget that when the U.S. rulers talk about "our children," when they talk about "people," they are talking about their children, about their class. That grotesque class callousness is one more piece of evidence that the working class and fighting toilers around the world are the only true bearers of human solidarity.  
 

I do not know how the big-business press here in Britain played up Russian president Boris Yeltsin's visit to Washington earlier this month. But in the United States, and I suspect elsewhere around the world, headlines proclaimed that Yeltsin and Bush had announced plans to destroy a far greater number of nuclear warheads than had previously been anticipated. As a result, the world is supposed to be less threatened by the use of nuclear weapons.

What is actually happening, however, is the opposite of what the headlines imply.

Here in the United Kingdom, and in France as well, the imperialist governments are strengthening their nuclear arsenals, for example. Prime Minister John Major tips his hat to nuclear cutbacks, announcing plans to remove tactical nuclear warheads from aboard ships and aircraft—tactical weapons that British armed forces never had a realistic way of using. At the same time, however, London is expanding undersea nuclear weapons by installing more accurate, multiwarhead Trident II missiles on British submarines. Paris, for its part, is building five new submarines, armed with new multiwarhead missiles that will double the size of its nuclear force.

What Bush is really pushing Yeltsin to concede, in exchange for promised economic aid, is Moscow's agreement to set aside the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, allowing Washington the option to deploy a ground-based antiballistic missile system. The U.S. rulers intend to place themselves in a stronger position against all those powers that are continuing to build up their nuclear arsenals, and against all those that will acquire them in the coming decades. That is what the talks with Yeltsin are all about, not the destruction of nuclear weapons on the road to a more peaceful world.¹

There will be more armed conflict and spreading wars in coming years. More governments in every part of the world will get their hands not only on nuclear weapons but also on ballistic missile delivery systems. At the same time, however, the working class and other toilers who have to fight and die on behalf of the interests of the exploiters will be a powerful source of resistance to such wars and preparations for war. We will have the opportunity to take power out of the hands of the capitalist rulers who are responsible for war, and for the nuclear threat that continues to hang over humanity.

During the war drive and bloody onslaught against Iraq, communist workers learned in practice how we can fight to defend space in the working class and labor movement to campaign against imperialism and war. We did so even during the stage when the capitalist rulers are always most successful in mounting patriotic backing for their war efforts—when U.S. forces go into combat, but before body bags begin returning home in unexpectedly large numbers. During the Gulf War, we saw just the beginnings of how antiwar resistance can develop among workers and youth. And we will see a similar process—similar debates, similar pressures, similar opportunities—as the capitalists mount more war drives and launch new wars.

¹ In January 1999 the Clinton administration announced plans to spend nearly $7 billion over six years to build a long-range antiballistic missile (ABM) system, similar to the "Star Wars" program pressed by the Reagan White House in the 1980s. Implementation of Clinton's plan would mark a substantial escalation of strategic weaponry, placing Washington in a position to launch a nuclear first strike for the first time since the development by the Soviet Union of a hydrogen bomb and intercontinental missiles. Constructing the planned U.S. antiballistic missile system would abrogate the 1972 ABM agreement signed by Washington and Moscow, under which both governments are currently bound not to develop such a system.

While the U.S. government claims this move is designed solely as "defense" against "threats" from "rogue nations" such as North Korea and Iraq, its first strategic target is in reality the workers state in China—which has a substantially less developed nuclear arsenal and missile system than the workers state in Russia. Beijing immediately protested Washington's announcement. "It will have a comprehensive and far-reaching impact on the strategic balance and stability of the region and world at large in the 21st century," said a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson. The statement warned of the added danger of joint development of an antimissile system between the U.S. and other countries, clearly referring above all to the often-mentioned potential U.S. partners near China's borders, such as Taiwan, Japan, and south Korea, as well as Russia.

Already confronted with Washington's decision to expand NATO membership to several former Warsaw Pact countries close to Russia's borders, Moscow has so far refused to ratify the START II treaty on nuclear warheads reduction, which was the topic of the 1992 talks between Bush and Yeltsin referred to above. Clinton's ABM plans diminish still further the chances of any START II ratification, and bring the danger for Russia of a U.S. first-strike capacity that much closer.  
 
 
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