Vol. 71/No. 40      October 29, 2007

“We see protracted confrontations by state and nonstate actors that are fueled by expanding Islamic extremism, competition for energy, this whole business of globalization, the climate and demographic changes that you see occurring, and the increasing use of violence to achieve political and ideological outcomes,” said Lt. Gen. Michael Vane, who directs the U.S. Army’s long-term procurement of weapons. His remarks were reported by Defense News.

Army chief of staff Gen. George Casey struck a similar theme in congressional testimony on September 26, saying coming conflicts will be protracted struggles with an enemy “adopting asymmetric techniques, using indirect approaches, and immersing themselves in the population.”

“That means more soldiers battling small groups of riflemen in close-quarter urban environments,” said Defense News. With that objective in mind the publication said the military is adapting light tactical vehicles with more armor, increasing stocks of precision munitions, and accelerating parts of its Future Combat Systems program.

“The expectation that soldiers will continue to fight against small groups of enemies in crowded cities sharpens their need for rounds that can kill precisely,” reported the publication. The Army already has plans to accelerate introduction of small unmanned video sensors and small unmanned aerial vehicles or drones that are better suited for urban warfare.

The Army’s need to continually sustain, reset, and transform its equipment means, “There will not be a peacetime dividend,” said Ricky Smith, director of the Army Capabilities Integration Center-Forward.

The likelihood of wider conflicts was confirmed by the Turkish government’s October 15 announcement that it will ask parliament for authorization to carry out military operations in Iraqi Kurdistan in pursuit of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas, who have been fighting Ankara for decades.

The Kurds in Turkey are part of an oppressed nationality spanning a territory including parts of Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Armenia, and Syria. The autonomy won by Kurds in Iraq has sharpened their struggle against national oppression in the broader region, including Turkey, where more than half the Kurdish population lives. Ankara fears that the autonomous region in Iraqi Kurdistan inspires national aspirations among the approximately 15 million Kurds in Turkey. It is also concerned about possible Kurdish control of the vast oil fields in northern Iraq.

The announcement by the Turkish government that it may invade Iraqi Kurdistan came a couple weeks after Ankara signed an “antiterrorism” pact with the U.S.-backed regime in Baghdad. The agreement provides for financial and intelligence cooperation to combat the PKK.

Ankara failed to get Baghdad’s agreement to allow Turkish troops to operate in Iraqi Kurdistan because of opposition from Kurdistan Regional Government officials.

The Turkish military already routinely bombards Kurdish villages along the border where Ankara says PKK camps are located. It also maintains 1,500 troops several miles inside northern Iraq along a 240-mile border.

Washington has warned Ankara against any action that might destabilize northern Iraq. Relations between Washington and its NATO ally have been further strained by a bill making its way through Congress which describes the killing of some 1.5 million Armenians by the Turkish military during World War I as genocide.

The Bush administration has lobbied against the resolution and warned that it could hurt U.S.-led war in Iraq. Turkey recalled its ambassador to Washington for consultations and threatened to reduce its logistical assistance to the U.S.-led war in Iraq. About 70 percent of U.S. air cargo headed to Iraq and about a third of the fuel used by the U.S. military in Iraq is transported through Turkey.  
 
 
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